Powering Up for Powerball Changes

Despite earning an MA in mathematics from the University of Illinois in 1968, I don’t consider myself a  mathematician. College math classes in the late 60’s focused on “modern math” with very little practical application and almost no computer or even calculator technology. Those were the days of punch cards, and Fortran, and Max Beberman and abstract algebra. There were no statistics courses in our curriculum either, even though most of my classmates were preparing to enter or return to teaching after finishing our NSF academic year institute. So when I talk about the Powerball lottery’s changing odds, I’ll give you some very basic information, and then I’ll direct you to a site where the real mathematicians among you can satisfy your desire to know more.

Readers who do not care for mathematics should  skip the next five paragraphs, everything between the $$$’s. Those casually curious about how odds are figured can read on. Expert and serious mathematicians should link to the web address for fivethirtyeight.com instead.

$$$ $$$ $$$

Everybody knows how Powerball is played. Currently the winning Powerball ticket consists of matching five white balls chosen without replacement from a group of 59, and one red ball, the Powerball, chosen from a group of 35. Everyone knows how to play, but not ot everyone knows how the odds of winning are calculated. 

The calculation of the number of possible draw combinations is simple: ((59*58*57*56*55)*35 / (5*4*3*2*1). where * indicates multiplication and / indicates division. This simplifies to 175,223,510 combinations, so the odds of winning the Powerball today is 1:175,223,510. (Sticklers for accuracy might say 1:175,223,509 since there is 1 winning combination and 175,223,509 losing ones out of the 175,223,510 possibilities. Either number will do.)

The general formula for drawing m correct items from a set of n items without replacement and regardless of order is: C = n*(n-1)*(n-2)*… (n-m+1)/(m!),  where C is the number of combinations, n is the number of items in the set, and m is the number of items to be selected. In the calculation above, the five white balls count down from 59 through 55. The 5! figure is the product of 5*4*3*2*1 because we have to choose 5 numbers for white balls and the number 35 accounts for the solitary red ball.

My husband prefers to calculate the probability of winning by multiplying 1/(59*C5)*1/35. That’s the number of combinations of 59 things taken five at a time. Either way there are 175,223,510 possible choices for you to pick for your Powerball ticket. I find it easier to just look at the back of the ticket where we bubble in our choices to see what the odds are myself. Or to just ignore the odds entirely since they're so astronomical they don't really matter. If you would like to calculate the new odds for yourself, however,  the following information will allow you to use the formula above to do it. Or you can just accept the odds figure I’ll give you from an internet source.

The new rules going into effect for the October 7 drawing this year will change the field of 59 to one of 69 for white balls. The second red ball field will decrease from 35 to 26. If you want to calculate the odds yourself, in the above formula n becomes 69, m is still 5, and the number 35 for the red ball will be replaced by 26. If I’ve made no errors typing, and you’ve made no errors calculating, the odds to win the new Powerball jackpot will be 1 in 292,201,338.

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So, now that we’ve finished with the arithmetic for calculating the odds of winning, we find our chances will actually be WORSE after the new rules go into effect. (Surprise, surprise!) Our odds of winning the Powerball will  drop from 1 in 175,233,510 with the current 59 white balls and 35 red ones to 1 in 292,201,338 with the new 69 white and 26 red ones. The Powerball will be harder to win (and its already practically impossible), but the jackpot will be bigger if we do. The chance that it could make the winner a billionaire is about 7.5 times as high. 

Walt Hickey has a wonderful article on the fivethirtyeight.com site that you will enjoy. He has devised a basic model simulating Powerball jackpots over the next five years of play. Under the old rules, there was a billion-dollar lottery in only 8.5% of the simulated 5-year periods. Under the new rules, there could be a billion-dollar simulated lottery in 63.4% of the periods. The Powerball jackpot starts at $40,000 and rises at least $10 million between drawings, no matter how many tickets are sold. More tickets are sold as the jackpot gets bigger so the increase is not always $10 million. Mr. Hickey has graphs and calculations based on various assumptions that lead him to believe the 17th drawing might be the elusive billion-dollar lottery. That’s the one December 2 if you have faith in his figures.

Even though it will be harder to win the jackpot under the new rules, the odds of winning secondary Powerball prizes will improve. You currently have a 1 in 32 chance to win anything at all. After October 7, you will have a 1 in 25 chance to win a prize. More small prizes. Less big ones. Just like our slot pays!  The third prize category is better. It is currently $10,000, but with the new rules winners in that category will make $50,000.

I may buy a ticket for the first drawing on October 7 since that is also my birthday, but it will probably be the only one I ever buy.  My odds of being struck by lightning are much better than winning the Powerball jackpot. Nationalgeographic.com says my chances of being hit are 1 in about 700,000. Discovertheodds.com says the US Weather Service calculated that there were 280 deaths between 2001 and 2010 from lightening strikes with a US population of about 310,000,000 so the odds are 1:1,107,143. The same source says the odds change depending on where you Iive. In Montana the odds were 1:249,500, but in California, where I live, the odds are 1:7,538,382. 

Bottom line, there’s not much chance of winning the Powerball under old or new rules. You are much more likely to be struck by lightening than win either one. Besides, playing the slots is a lot more fun than gambling on the lottery any day. I’d rather take my chances with the machines at my Native American casinos than with the lottery kiosks. Wouldn’t you? 

Man vs. Machine

When I wrote Spin to Win, I reminded my readers about the 1983 science fiction film WarGames and of man’s unintended struggles with Artificial Intelligence in his ever more powerful machines. In that movie the computer inadvertently starts the countdown to World War III, threatening all of humanity. In the end disaster is averted when it  learns the lesson the film teaches us all: the only way to win was not to play.

Well, thirty or so years later, that may still be true. And yet, despite the warnings in our sci-fi cinema and literature, we continue our efforts to build smarter and smarter machines. And we program these intelligent machines with abilities that could enable them someday to turn against and defeat their makers. You see it in sci-fi movies all the time! Ex Machina, for instance, is a modern day reimagining of Frankenstein’s Monster and AI gone awry. In the Terminator and myriad of other sci-fi movies over the years, we often become the hapless victim of our own creation. Are there no lessons to be learned here, nothing to be afraid of? Why are we building these super-smart machines anyway? And why are we still playing games with them? 

And who would win that competition if the game was played today: man or machine? 

We have the answer to the man vs. machine match-up, at least when it comes to playing poker. This spring from April 24 through May 8, 2015, Artificial Intelligence (AI) once again squared off against world class human gamers. And, for now, in most people’s opinions, the humans won. 

Other past matches haven’t turned out so well for the machines’ human challengers. In 1997 the IBM Supercomputer Deep Blue defeated chess master Gary Kasparov. In 2011 the Watson program defeated Jeopardy champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter. But chess and trivia aren’t the only games in town. This time the Carnegie Mellon University’s computer Claudico went up against four of the world’s best professional poker players: Jason Les, Dong Kim, Bjorn Li, and Doug Polk. The tournament was held at the Rivers Casino in Pittsburgh in an epic 14 day and 80,000 hand game of no-limit Texas hold-em. And, by a narrow margin, the humans won.

The game is of particular interest to Artificial Intelligence researchers because poker is a game of incomplete information, and of all the poker variations, no-limit hold-em is one of the most sophisticated. Each player is dealt two cards only he can see. After a round of betting, the dealer presents five cards available to all the players —three cards (the flop), one card (the turn), and the last card (the river) with a round of betting after each. In no-limit anyone can bet anything from one chip to going “all in.” You can leverage a strong hand or bluff with a weak one. 

Researchers have been looking at the game since the 1990’s. An algorithm capable of determining optimal strategy for incomplete information scenarios could have far-reaching applications for cyber security, business, medicine, and military strategy, they say, because most world settings are imperfect information games. No limit hold-em is the last big challenge according to  professor Tuomas Sandholm whose team designed Claudico because the number of unique situations that can arise in the game is so big they can’t even all fit into memory. He claims there are 10 (to the 161 power) possible situations a player could face - more than all the atoms in the universe.  That’s 1 followed by 161 zeros. That's a lot.

There were three stages to the computer’s game theory development according to articles on the web. First the programmers fed the game rules into an abstraction algorithm, reducing it to something smaller in scope and more comprehensible. Then they customized algorithms to come as close as possible to Nash Equilibrium, a game theory concept involving optimal strategy. Finally they used reverse mapping techniques to input that strategy back into the algorithms for the games original parameters. Don’t worry if you don’t know what any of that means — I don’t either. Most of us have little real understanding of mathematics and statistical analysis. What I think we’re supposed to gather, from what I read, is that there are not algorithms to solve every possible problem, and the machine merely approximates ideal rational play, whatever the circumstances. And sometimes it doesn’t do too good a job of this.

Anyway, Microsoft Research and Rivers Casino put up $100,000 to cover the four players’ appearance fees for the grueling 13 hours of play each day. Claudico ran on Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center’s Blacklight computer. The humans used their own laptops to connect. with the supermachine. The challenge was structured so that the computer would simultaneously play each human one-on-one over a large sample of 20,000 hands, with the winner decided by who had the most virtual chips after the 80,000 hands. After two weeks of play, the ability to exploit Claudico’s departure from optimal play led the humans to victory. When the final hand was played, the players had wagered almost $170 million and the team of human professional gamblers was ahead by $732,713. 

Yes, the humans won — unless you’re a statistician. In that case, the match was statistically a tie. 

In the end both sides won the Texas hold-em challenge. The humans declared victory (despite the statistics), and the machine got 80,000 poker hands to study before the rematch next year and AI’s eventual dominance.

Blarney Stone BS

As gamblers we all love the Hollywood stories of myths and magic and mischief in the casinos. Of card counters and con artists scheming to break the codes in order to break the bank. Of hustles and heists and hijinks and hitting it big. Of fortunes won and fortunes lost. Casino movies are an entire genre of action stories, and Vegas knows we love a good story. Maybe WE can beat the system. Maybe WE can take them down. It’s Vegas, baby. Anything is possible. 

So what does it really take to rip off Vegas? Machines and math wizards? Con artists and spy tech? Ocean’s Eleven with a team each having his part to play? Apparently not. Apparently all you need is a little bit of alcohol and a little bit of luck.  And where does that luck come from? Perhaps from a casino's lucky charm like the legendary Blarney Stone.

You've heard of the Irish tradition of kissing the Blarney Stone, haven't you? Believers travel to County Cork, Ireland, just to kiss the famous rock. Legend has it that those who kiss the stone are granted the gift of eloquence and persuasiveness. Tourists come from all over the world to kiss the rock and gain the gift of gab.

Kissing the Blarney stone is not an easy maneuver. Look at this picture of someone kissing the stone. It must be done leaning backward while holding onto two railings, not an easy feat. But evidently it’s worth the effort everyone feels. 

Here's a little history of the famous rock. The Blarney stone is set in a wall in Blarney Castle constructed in 1446 by Dermot McCarthy, the King of Munster. There are a number of stories about the rock’s origins. Some say the rock was brought to Ireland during the Crusades. Others say the stone is made of the same material found at Stonehenge. Some stories have associated the stone with Moses and with King David. It has been said to be a gift from the king of the Scots to the king of Munster for his help defeating the British in 1314. The term “blarney” means skillful flattery or nonsense, and the name was given to the castle by Queen Elizabeth I in the 16th century, frustrated when the owner used his skills of persuasion to stall her occupying his castle.  

Geologists have studied samples of the Blarney Stone, and science has determined the stories are all fabricated — Irish urban legends. The rock is made of local carboniferous limestone, about 330 million years old, and so has nothing to do with any of these tales. The tales are all a bunch of blarney! Yet visitors as famous as Winston Churchill are among the notables who have visited and kissed the stone hoping to augment their powers of persuasion..

"So what," you ask. What does the Blarney Stone in Ireland have to do with Vegas casino and luck and legends?  

Well, originally the old Fitzgerald’s Casino in Las Vegas held a piece of the famous rock. When Fitzgerald’s was sold and reopened as the D in 2012, the piece of the Blarney Stone passed along to the new owners. The rock sat on a small pedestal between the bar and a line of slots on the D’s second floor. The sign above the stone advised gamblers that if the requirement to suspend themselves upside down for a proper kiss of the stone proved too dangerous, just give the stone a good rub for that special D luck. Is that BS or what!

D Casino Security Photo
(Twitter, DerekJStevens)

So what happened to cause the rock to make the news this month? About 2:30 am one night, a rather inebriated gambler lifted the famous unprotected stone from its case, took the escalator downstairs, and carried the famous rock out of the casino hoisting it like it was a pizza. Surveillance cameras caught it all. But what originally appeared to be a heist of the good luck charm turned out to be just a drunken mistake. 

The owner of the casino has received a lot of praise from its patrons for the way he handled the theft. Rather than notifying the police of the loss, hotel owner Derek Stephens took to social media to help him recover the casino's missing property, tweeting this screen shot of the surveillance video. Less than 24 hours later, the missing piece of the Blarney Stone had been returned by the contrite thief. What do you think? Was this an actual deliberate theft? Or was it all just a fun story to draw attention to the D? Or was it total Blarney Stone BS, like the history of the stone itself? 

Ask yourself, is this the way Vegas typically enforces security? Could it have all been part of an elaborate publicity scheme? The casino has chosen not to prosecute. They say because the man was sorry, and too much tequila was involved. “It was just a typical crazy night in Las Vegas!” everyone said. Sure it was. It wasn’t clear whether the perp kissed the rock before he returned it, and the whole thing sounds like  Blarney Stone BS to me.

Pacific Pinball Museum: Alameda's Arcade Fun

Before there were arcade games, or home video games, or video slot games, there was pinball. For some of you, playing pinball games was an expression of your rebellious youth (at least in the movies it was.) For some of you, these games are ancient history, older than your parents. But for all of you, if playing vintage pinball machines sounds like fun, and if you are in the Bay area, you really should visit the fabulous Pacific Pinball Museum at 1510 Webster in Alameda, CA. There you’ll find the largest collection of vintage pinball machines ever housed under one roof. For a mere $15 cost of admission, you can play nearly 100 vintage slot machines for as long as you like - all on free play. No quarters needed.

The museum has grown so popular that it soon will be moving to larger quarters in the former Carnegie Library site. There are nearly 1,000 machines in the Museum’s collection and it currently has room to display about 100 of them. In addition the Museum will be creating a room in its facility for teaching science through pinball. Visitors will be encouraged to perform experiments in electricity, physics, and statistics while learning principles of electromagnetic, engineering, and geometry. The exhibits are included in the regular price of admission which gives you unlimited pinball play.

One exhibit you might want to look for at the museum is the “Visible Pinball Machine”: a prototype translucent machine in a clear cabinet so players and spectators can see how the machine works. Another that seems designed for unskilled players like me is called “Conical Slices.” It uses geometric shapes - the parabola, the ellipse, and the hyperbola - where a ball is aimed to reflect into a hole and it goes in every time, no matter where you aim it. “These are quite satisfying for the inept,” says directer Michael Schiess, ”because you can’t miss.”

Here’s a little history of pinball play from the internet for those of you who care. (You can skip it if you don't.) The original pinball game was based on improvements made to an old French game from the 1700's called Bagatelle by a British inventor (and the patent holder)  Montegue Redgrave in 1871. 

The game was banned from the early 1940’s (when I was born) to the mid-1970’s (when my children were.) The stated reason for banning the game was that pinball was a game of chance, not skill, and thus was a form of gambling. This is partly true, because the flipper wasn’t invented until 1947, five years after most of the bans were implemented. Until then players would bump and tilt the machines to sway the ball’s gravity. Also, many lawmakers believed pinball to be a mafia run racket and a time- and dime-waster for impressionable youth.

Shortly after Pearl Harbor was attacked, NY Mayor Fiorello LaGuardia declared rounding up pinball machines and arresting their owners was a police top priority, and thousands of the games were smashed with sledgehammers and dumped into the city’s rivers. Although illegal, the games did not disappear. They merely moved underground to seedier locations. During WWII much American manufacturing switched to the war effort, and suppliers began selling conversion kits, allowing operators to transform a machine’s artwork to a fresh theme, often using wartime motifs.

Pinball became a symbol of youthful rebellion in movies, TV, and musicals. The Fonz is regularly seen playing pinball in Happy Days episodes. Part of his “bad-boy” appeal. When the pinball-wizard themed rock opera Tommy came out in 1972, pinball was still banned in much of the country. And in the Simpsons, Sideshow Bob once proclaimed: “Television has ruined more young minds than pinball and syphilis combined.”

In 1976 the NYC ban on pinball was overturned when a 26-year old magazine editor Roger Sharp demonstrated to the city council that it truly was a game of skill, not a game of chance. 

A few bits of trivia: The best selling pinball machine of all time is still “The Addams Family” which came out in 1991. Hugh Hefner is a huge pinball fanatic, and there are three playboy themed pinball games. In 1999 “Pinball 2000,” a hybrid game combining pinball and video games featured holographic characters that would interact with the flying ball. Two versions were produced, before the company pulled the plug on the games. 

The video game boom of the 1980’s signaled the end of the pinball game reign as games like Space Invaders (1978), Asteroids (1979), and Pac Man (1980) marked the beginning of the digital age. 

You can learn more of the history of pinball machines at Pacificpinball.

The Del Mar Racetrack: Where the Turf Meets the Surf

It has been about 35 years since I’ve watched live thoroughbred horse racing, so don’t expect any expert advice here on how to handicap horses or win at the track. My experience playing the ponies consists of visits to Ellis Park in Henderson, Kentucky, on summer weekends with my parents and brother long, long ago when we were young. We adults placed our $2 bets on the ponies based on such scientific data as the color of the jockey’s silks, or the lucky number he drew for his post position, or the cute name his horse might have. There were no exactas or trifectas or pick six bets. I think there might have been a daily double — Oh, wait. I’m thinking of Jeopardy! :) I don’t remember if my strategy was to pick the horse with best odds to Place or the one with the second best odds to Win, but whatever it was, it didn’t win me any money. 

I looked at Ellis Park’s web site today, and I see things have changed. I learned visitors can play Instant Racing Machines between the races. These evidently are electronic parimutuel systems where players are wagering on historic horse races. Statistics are offered on screen prior to pushing the start button, and players select the order they think the horses will come in. There’s even a handicapper helper button where the machine will pick the winners for you. Their site says the games offer bonus rounds and jackpots, and you get $5 in play for signing up for a player’s card. Sounds like playing the slots to me!

But I really don’t want to talk about Ellis Park. I want to talk a bit about Del Mar. The Del Mar track was featured in our San Diego newspaper yesterday because its season opens this Thursday, July 16. Opening day at the races is always a fun event I’m told. (I’ve never gone and had the experience myself.)

The highlight is the hat contest with prizes offered for the most glamorous, best racing theme, funniest/most outrageous, best fascinator (an alternative to a hat attached to a band or clip), and flowers/all others. The overall winner gets a two night stay in a suite at Harrah’s Southern California Resort along with a $200 meal credit and a $200 spa credit. The tradition dates back to the 1930’s when ladies wore hats everyday. Today, even if not participating in the contest, most of the crowd wears a hat on Opening Day. It’s tradition.

There are parties and concerts too. Tickets to the opening day experience are $30 per person and include exclusive access to The Party, with DJs, gourmet food trucks, beer garden and cocktail bars, prize giveaways, interactive activities, jumbo video boards, private wagering, and limited first-come first-served shaded seating. Fridays for the eight weeks of the season are free to race goers over 18 if you make it through the gates before the start of the last race. The concert Aug 28 is open to all ages and features “Weird Al” Yankovic. The Track appears to have borrowed a page from the Las Vegas playbook with the experience as much about clubs, shows, restaurants, and entertainment as it is about gambling.

Del Mar expects about 40,000 visitors opening day. About 70% of attendees will be between the ages of 18 and 49. About 45% will be female. Last summer was a troubled one for the track. Sixteen horses died for various reasons, and both wagering and attendance dipped. Many blamed the synthetic polytrack for the problems the horses experienced. So, after eight years and and over 9 million dollars spent on the engineered racing surface, the thoroughbreds will be running on dirt once more this season. The turf course was also widened for fourteen starters in 2014. Partly this was for safety. Partly it was to pave the way for Del Mar to host the Breeders’ Cup next fall. Mark your calendars: November 3-4, 2017.  Attendance at the Breeder’s Cup typically ranks 4th or 5th behind the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Kentucky Oaks so this is a big deal for Del Mar.

Bing Crosby at the turnstile

I’ll close with a little history of the Track because I always like to intersperse some facts and figures with my ramblings and musings. Del Mar has always had a real Hollywood connection here in Southern California. The Track opened July 3, 1937. Bing Crosby himself stood at a turnstile opening day collecting tickets for his new seaside racetrack. Bitten by the racing bug, Crosby - along with other Hollywood friends such as Pat O’Brien, Oliver Hardy, and Gary Cooper - concocted the idea for a horse palace by the ocean where one could play all day, party all night, and leave cares behind. The Hollywood connection continued for decades, interrupted only by a three-year shutdown for World War II. The Santa Fe Railroad launched a special race day train from LA to Del Mar that carried Hollywood stars to the track. The party started on the train, and if the train was late, the races were delayed until it pulled into the station.

August 12, 1938 was a big day in Del Mar history. That’s the day Seabiscuit defeated the South American import Ligaroti to win by a nose in 1:49, breaking the track record by an amazing four seconds. If you have forgotten the 2003 Academy Award nominated movie Seabiscuit staring Tobey Maguire, Jeff Bridges, and Chris Cooper, it’s worth taking a second look to recall the story of the undersized racehorse that took the nation on the ride of a lifetime. 

Our newspaper today reminded us that when the HBO television series “Entourage” about a movie star and his buddies decided to film an episode at the track in 2006, they chose to do it at Del Mar rather than Santa Anita, right in Hollywood’s backyard. A half-dozen reality shows have also filmed segments at Del Mar they say. (The Marx Brothers movie “A Day at the Races” was filmed at Santa Anita however.)

In 2010 Del Mar made history again when Kenyatta won her third straight Clemente L Hirsch Stakes and ran her perfect record to 18 for 18 in front of 32,536 fans at the seaside track. More recently, November 29, 2014, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome won the Hollywood Derby at Del Mar, later going on to win Horse of the Year. American Pharaoh, the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years is currently at Del Mar, training, but likely won't race there. The next scheduled race is August 2 at Monmouth in Oceanport, NJ. 

Here's an article you'll enjoy if you are interested in the history of Del Mar.

If you are interested in expanding your gambling activities to include horse racing, this season at Del Mar, California, would be a good place to start.

A Few Lines on Texas' "Eight-Liner" Machines

It’s hard to find a legal casino in Texas. They're against State law, except for those Native American casinos permitted because of tribal sovereignty. The Lone Star State has three federally recognized native American tribes, but only one of them, the Kickapoo, is authorized under IGRA (Indian Gaming Regulatory Act of 1987) to own and operate a casino. Casino gambling is illegal under state law (Sect 47.01) in Texas but, because of tribal sovereignty, that tribe has been able to operate its casino outside of state jurisdiction. 

The other two Texas tribes, the Tigua and the Alabama-Coushatta tribes, wanted to operate casinos, but were specifically prohibited by IGRA from doing so according to 500 Nations. They opened casinos anyway without state approval in 1992/1993, but after a 10 year battle in the courts, they were forced to close. The Kickapoo, despite being an IGRA tribe, was also sued in 2008 by the Texas Attorney General’s office. That case is now before the US Supreme Court after the tribe lost in the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals. So, before long it is possible that the Lucky Eagle Casino located in Eagle Pass about 100 miles south of San Antonio might also be forced to close. If that happens, Texas will have NO casinos operating legally in that state.

However, that doesn’t mean Texas doesn’t have any illegal ones. Despite state laws saying otherwise, illegal casinos thrive throughout the state of Texas. An underground billion-dollar industry operates in a gray area grown even grayer as the state, several cities, and some counties have imposed taxes and fees on the illegal gambling room operators to fill their coffers. Texas has 30,000 - 150,000 illegal slot machines that make an estimated $1.9 billion annually, according to the Texas Lottery Commission. They operate out of abandoned or fake businesses and have turned up in spaces that appear to be karate schools, car dealerships, repair shops and even a gravel warehouse. Much like the speakeasies of prohibition days, law enforcement officials are sometimes bribed (according to the New York Times and prosecutor Richard Roper) to avoid being raided.

The illegal “slot” machines are called “eight-liner” machines. They got that name because, to win, the horizontal, vertical, and diagonal eight rows of symbols in a 3x3 array must line up. The machines come in multiple variants and can include video reel, video keno, and video bingo games among others. 

The state makes money off these games. Some of the machines confiscated in raids have official state tax decals on them. The Texas comptroller’s office reportedly collects $10 million annually through a coin-operated machines tax which included eight-liners, pool tables, and other devices.  Starr County charges eight-liner operators $500 per machine through an annual licensing fee approved by the County Commissioners’ Court last year. The profitability of these games perhaps causes officials to turn a blind eye to the legality of these operations. The industry has grown so large, particularly near the border, that it has attracted the attention of Homeland Security.  

How did the industry which under Texas law should not even exist become so widespread and profitable? Gamblers have an unlikely group to thank: the Texas Legislature. 

Prior to 1993, the Texas Penal Code prohibited any game of chance that “for consideration affords the player anything of value.” In 1993 the Legislature amended the statute by adding Section 47.01(4)(B). It relaxed the standard by making legal any electronic or mechanical device made solely for bona fide amusement purposes. The legislation was so innocuous it was known as the “fuzzy animals” bill. It was intended to ensure that games such as those played by children at arcades or carnivals would not be considered unlawful gambling devices. The bill stipulated that the games award non-cash prizes with a value of up to $5 (or no more than 10 times the amount charged to play).

Of course the “fuzzy animal law” has been used to justify machines that go way beyond children’s games. Eight-liner operators have used various tactics to “skirt” the law. In one case gift certificates redeemable at retail stores were awarded. The courts ruled these gift certificates were the same as cash. In another instance point were allowed to accumulate and be played in other machines and eventually be used to “buy” more expensive merchandise.

Legislators have introduced bills (HB 1154) and (HB 1183) which would have assessed penalties and fines, but neither were enacted. City ordinances passed zoning restrictions prohibiting coin-operated amusement machines within 300 feet of churches, schools, or hospitals. Still the popular games  grew in popularity.

Cameron County has taken steps to try to dismantle the eight-liner industry. The attorney general authorized nearly 40 raids of gambling establishments including one targeting the American Legion in Port Isabel. His actions have cost him votes, led to a death threat against him, and supplied him with his own gambling room of sorts. About 100 slot machines seized in the raids sit in a brick warehouse, and 500 others were sold to a company that paid the country $100,000. Environmental regulations prohibit his destroying the machines, he reportedly said.

Sounds like Texas still has a long way to go solving its eight-liner problem, and enforcement of the 1993 “fuzzy animals”  bill is still pretty fuzzy.

How Long Will Your Money Last?

       Here’s some fun you can have before your next trip to play the slots at your favorite casino. 

       One of my favorite gamers, Random $$ Slots, recently sent me the link to his slot calculator from Digital Media (DIGDIA). It’s an entertaining tool that will let you calculate how much money you can expect to win/lose playing your favorite games and how long your bankroll will last. You can vary the amount you bet, the speed at which you play, the game’s RTP (return to player - the payback percentage), and the volatility of the game. Based on this information, the handy little machine will do the rest and tell you how much you can expect to win or lose after any chosen number of spins.  If you’re a member of slot fanatics, you may have seen this before. If you’re not, you’ll be eager to try it out I know. The calculator is at RandomSSSlots.

       The variables you enter are pretty straightforward, but you might not be familiar with the term volatility, also called variance.  With a few exceptions, the games we play don’t advertise their volatility so we have to estimate it usually. Volatility is a measure of how wildly the wins vary. Some games have frequent wins that don’t pay very much. These are low volatility games. Others don’t hit so often, but when they do, you can win large amounts of money. These are high volatility games. The pull down panel next to  the menu for volatility with the calculator gives you one example each for low, medium, medium high, high or very high volatility games that you might be familiar with.

       Another listing for games of various volatilities can be found at dproxima.com. This prolific videographer lists many games currently on the casino floors with various levels of volatility, You can view the games you are not familiar with on his YouTube videos. This will give you a feel for the volatility of the games you usually play. 

       If you don’t see your game on these lists, there are other suggestions on the internet to help you determine your game’s volatility. Search for “volatility“ or “variance” and you’ll find a lot of articles to read. John Robison, who writes for Casino City Times, says as a general rule, the higher the lowest reward on the payable, the lower the hit frequency & the higher the variance.  Another rule of thumb, he says, is that machines with multiplying symbols have lower hit frequencies than machines without multipliers. Low hit frequency means higher volatility. Every rule has its exceptions, however.

       Everybody you read says to check the payable. The higher the maximum win, the longer you’ll have to play to win it.  Another indication of a high volatility machine is a payable with 5 of a kind paying 10 or 15 times as much as 4 of a kind. They all say just play the game, and you’ll quickly get a feel for the game’s volatility.

       Which type machine should you play? That’s up to you. Are you playing for fun or for fortune? Do you want to be entertained for a long time without losing too much, or do you want to risk it all for less time on device but more chance to win big?

       You want to play low variance games if you don’t have a very large bankroll, if you want to play as long as possible, and you mostly just want to be entertained. You want to play high volatility games if you’re chasing a big win and have cash to spare, and you’ve accepted the fact that you’ll probably walk out with less than you came in with, and you don’t mind blowing your budget now and then. 

       And you want to play with Random $$ Slot’s calculator before you go and risk your real cash. See what it predicts you’ll have to take home when you’re done and how long it thinks you’ll be able to play on your bankroll. If that doesn’t discourage you from ever setting foot in a casino again — and it won’t because we always think we’ll be the exception to the rule —  then have a good time and win a lot of money and remember to “view, like, and subscribe” on YouTube to thank these videographers for their contributions.  Thanks, DProxima, for ranking the games on your site, and a very special thank you to Random $$ Slots for sharing his cool calculator with us all.

Canadian Crossing Concerns

     If you are a Canadian who wins big (over $10,000) in the USA, you might be the subject of two currency transaction reports. One filled out by the US casino where you won the money for the IRS and one filled out at the border for the Canadian Border Service Agency (CBSA).

     Why, you ask?

     The first report is the Form 8300 filing required by Title 31 of the US code to circumvent money laundering and the funding of terrorist activities. It applies to aliens as well as to US citizens. How do I know that? From the instructions at 4.26.10.7.1(5) of the IRS document HERE. It indicates that identify verification for aliens or non-residents must be done by using the person’s passport, alien Identification card, or other document evidencing nationality or residence. The document used is recorded on the form, and the form is sent to the US Government to aid in its money laundering investigations.

     The second report is required by the CBSA. You can read their guide for yourself at CBSA. Here’s what it says:

     It is not illegal to transport money across the US/Canada Border. It doesn’t matter how much money you bring into Canada or how much money you take out of it. But there is now a requirement to report to a border services officer transactions totaling CAN$10,000 or more. It makes no difference whether the money is coin or currency, domestic or foreign, or whether it includes travelers cheques, bank notes or securities. If it’s more than $10,000 and it’s cash, you must declare it and complete Form E677.

     If the funds are not your own, you complete Form E667 instead. You cannot avoid the requirements by mailing the funds into Canada. The form must be completed and included with the item being mailed. Another copy is sent to the nearest CBSA office at the same time. Other postal requirements may exist. Nor can you avoid these requirements by sending the money by courier. If you fail to report monetary instruments greater than $10,000, your funds are subject to seizure and the assessment of penalties or forfeiture. Penalties can range form $250 - $5,000. 

     Canadians with questions can call throughout Canada at 1-800-461-9999. Outside of Canada call 204-983-3500 or 506-636-5064. 

     There are a lot of sites with threads discussing CBSA reporting requirements on the internet. Unfortunately many of these bloggers are making suggestions about how to circumvent the rules. Are they devious people? Or do they not understand the rules and the reasons for them? Why should you need to hide something legally won? Especially if it is recreational gambling winnings. Canada doesn’t tax recreational gambling winnings of its citizens - only a Canadian professional gambler’s business income is taxed by Canada.

     Not all of the ideas put forth on the web are bad. One writer had some very good suggestions. He suggested you document where the money came from - a letter from the casino, a picture of the winnings, a copy of your plane ticket, etc. He advised that you ask the casino to write you a check for your winnings rather than try to carry large amounts of cash across the border. He felt that the Canada Revenue Agency might contact you about the money, and if you couldn’t prove that is was recreational gambling winnings, they’d want it declared as taxable income. 

       Incidentally, don’t forget 30% is withheld by the US casinos from foreigners on large wins. If you are a Canadian citizen with winnings in the States, you may need to file a US 1040NR return to have overwithholding refunded at tax time. Take a look at my earlier post HERE that addressed Canadian gambling rules if you’ve forgotten.

Das Spiel ist Wunderbar

       If you love Bier Haus (and who doesn't!), Shamus of Slots has given us an early look at a new version that promises to be even more fun: Colossal Bier Haus. He played the new slot from WMS in Windsor, Canada, but we should be able to see it in our local casinos and Vegas before long. In the meantime, enjoy his video here.



       Back in April, as part of their YouTube NA vs LV competition series, players ShinobiYT and VegasLowRoller featured the original edition of the Bier Haus game. Read the review of this and their other battles in an my earlier post HERE. Check it out for fun videos of the original and see how this colossal version compares with the original game.