Betting on the Big Game

The Super Bowl is more than just a football game. Yes, It’s the highlight and culmination of a whole season of football games. But it’s also much more. It’s an excuse to pig out on chips and dips, beer and buffalo wings, to party with family and friends. It’s a chance for a first look at the new expensive commercials being rolled out, an opportunity to watch a spectacular half-time show and maybe even an unintended wardrobe malfunction. And it’s a chance to make a quick buck wagering on everything from who will win the game to what color shoes Beyonce will wear for the halftime show. Add it up and Americans will spend at least $4.2 billion betting on the Super Bowl this year, according to the American Gaming Association (AGA). More than half of adult Americans will have some money at risk on Sunday’s game.

AGA estimates conservatively that the Super Bowl bets legally placed at Nevada’s casinos amount to a mere 2.8% of the total wagered nationwide. Gamblers placed $116 million in bets on last year’s Super Bowl through the casino sports books. New England defeated Seattle 28 - 24 in that game, and untold millions of dollars changed hands when, just as Seattle was about to score, New England’s Malcolm Butler intercepted a pass to preserve the Patriot’s victory — without even having to deflate the football. LOL  More was bet illegally at bars and backyard parties, so who’s to say what the real amount that changed hands that day was.

How much money does the casino make of that $116 million bet? Not as much as you would think. Sports’ winning percentage was 5.8% last year. Compare that with 18% for roulette and 12% for blackjack. Even slot machines with a purported average winning percentage (according to the LA Times - not according to my experience gambling) of 6.4% have a better payout than sports.

Betting on the big game is fun. Right now the Carolina Panthers are favored to defeat the Denver Broncos by 6 points. That may change before the game at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara this coming Sunday. But there’s more to bet on than the results of the game. You can bet on the opening coin toss, whether either team will score 3 straight times, or in the first 6 1/2 minutes, or the final two minutes of the first half. Who will have the first completion or interception or penalty or touchdown. Whatever can happen in the game is probably a choice you can make wagering on the game.

Even more fun, I think, are the proposition or “prop” bets being offered, courtesy of Bovada and sites on the internet. Here are a few of the more unusual choices you can make and current odds.

 1: Will there be an earthquake during the game?   Yes (10/1)

 2: Will Peyton Manning announce his retirement in the post game interview?  Yes  (5/1)  No  (1/10)

 3: Will Peyton be seen crying at any point during the broadcast? Yes (6/1)  No  (1/12)

 4: How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV?  Over 1.5 (even) Under (5/7)

 5:How many times will Cam Newton do the “open shirt superman” motion? Over 2.5 (even) Under (5/7)

 6: Will the first Panther to score give his football to a boy (1/2) or a girl (3/2)?

 7: Will Cam Newton break the Super Bowl record for rushing yards by a quarterback? Yes (+275), no (-450)

 8: Who will be the Super Bowl’s Most Valuable Player (MVP)? Cam Newton (5/7), Peyton Manning (7/2)

 9: Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first? God (2/1), team (2/1), city/fans (6/1), coach (15/2), family (15/1), none of the above (9/4)

10: Which song will Coldplay play first during the half time show? Adventure of a Lifetime (2/1), Fix You (7/2), A Sky Full of Stars (9/2), Viva la Vida (5/1), Clocks (15/2), Speed of Sound (9/1) Head Full of Dreams (10/1) or Paradise (10/1)

11: What color shoes will Beyonce wear when she comes on stage for the halftime show? black (3/2), gold/brown (5/2), white (11/4), silver/grey (19/4), any other color (7/1)

12: What color liquid will be poured on the winning coach? orange (5/4), blue (3/1), clear (4/1), yellow (4/1), red (6/1), green (10/1), purple (10/1)

13: How many times will the Golden Gate Bridge be shown on TV? Over 0.5 (-300, 1/3) Under 0.5 (+200, 2/1).

The odds above were current as of January 29 and are subject to change. Check Bovada Sportsbook for updated figures and more prop bets closer to the game. 

Whoever wins, Super Bowl 50 should be a great game and a lot of fun to watch - whether you are watching it from three thousand dollar seats at the stadium, or on TV at home or your favorite sports bar, or even from your home on top of a hill a few miles from the stadium. If you don’t know who that is, check out this YouTube site.

You Carolina Panthers fans should be proud of your team and quarterback for an outstanding season. But we Denver Bronco fans know our quarterback Peyton Manning needs another ring before he retires and this is probably his last chance to win one…. so Go Peyton - one more time. 

Owning a Piece of History

      Two days after American Pharaoh became the first horse to win the Triple Crown in thirty-seven years, more than 95% of the $2 winning tickets have yet to be cashed. According to the Associated Press, 90,237 of the 94,128 two dollar wagers placed at Belmont and Aqueduct Saturday remained unredeemed Monday evening, June 8. Because the horse was such a heavy favorite, the window value of a $2 ticket was only $3.50, so many fans decided to keep the winning ticket as a souvenir. An article on an ESPN site says bettors left behind a total of $315,829 from uncashed tickets of various amounts.

      Another possibility, however, is that some people think there is money to be made selling their winning tickets to collectors. So, I went to eBay, and sure enough, there were pages of ticket offers to choose from. I only looked at the first page, but I found a site offering to sell a $2 ticket for $20 that claimed to have sold 389 at that price by 11:15 pm Monday night when I checked. There were also many sites auctioning off tickets that had no bids yet. 

       More interesting was a $2 win ticket from each of the Triple Crown Races - the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness, and the Belmont - for $399.90 buy it now and one from another seller for $324.99. Also someone was offering an American Pharaoh $37 trifecta for $950 or best offer. One enterprising seller suggested that next Sunday is Father’s Day, and a ticket would make the perfect gift. There were 26 people watching a site with a race trifecta for $999.99, buy it now.  No one was buying yet, and somehow I doubt if anyone will. There was also a packet of 500 winning $2 tickets offered for $14,999. 

       Of course our ebay entrepreneurs have until March 31, 2016 to cash their tickets if nobody bids. After that the unclaimed money is pooled and goes back to New York State.

Marlins Hope to Rewrite the Future

     This one’s for all you readers who try to get in a little sports betting on your trips to Vegas. If you are baseball fans, I’ve got news you need to know before you make your futures wager. 

     This year’s World Series winner was predicted twenty-six years ago in the classic 1989 film “Back to the Future II.” In the movie Marty McFly travels all the way to 2015, and while there, sees a holo-board with the news that the Chicago Cubs swept Miami to win the World Series. That’s a pretty remarkable prediction when you consider that the movie was released almost four years before Charlie Hough ever threw out that first pitch for Miami as a major league team in 1993. The Chicago Cubs, who started the movie’s fictional season in 2015 as 100:1 favorites, defeat the Miami team that didn’t exist at the time the movie was made in a best-of-nine game series this year. Which is a pretty good trick when you remember that both teams are in the National League. So, there's no way they could play each other in the World Series. Additionally, there are a max of 7 games, not 9, in that battle.

     The Marlins are hoping to #RewriteTheFuture and defeat the Cubs in 2015. During their three game matchup this coming week (June 1, 2, and 3), they’ll be giving away “Miami: 2015 American League Champions” t-shirts to special event package buyers. The shirts will feature the alligator logos from the movie not the Marlins. 

     September 25 will be “Back to the Future Night” and fish-fans will be encouraged to wear their best futuristic 2015 costumes as portrayed in the film. They’ll be giving away “Billy McFly” bobble head dolls (blending the names Billy for their mascot and McFly for the character from the movie). Part of the proceeds from these special events will be donated to the Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research. 

      Cubs fans have other opportunities to win alongside their team this year. Several Chicago businesses have gotten in on the action with special promotions based on the team’s prophecy. Fans even have a chance to win their very own custom Delorean Time Machine from Illinois’ Volo Auto Museum. The museum is raffling off a hover board in the event the Cubs don’t make it. If they do, a winner will drive away in the $85,000 piece of history.

     Right now the futures’ odds for the 2015 World Series are Chicago 12:1 and Miami 60:1. Chicago is 6:1 to take the Pennant and Miami is 30:1. These odds will change many times before October. The smart money at the sports books favors the Dodgers 6:1 to take the series, regardless of what the movie says.  Just thought you should know.

     You can read more at the Marlin major league blog oncloudconine. and at vegaschatter.com. Enjoy the clip from the movie below.

March Madness Office Pools

Baseball may still claim to be America’s National Pastime, but TV ratings and profits tell a different tale. More often writers and pollsters show the sport ranking third behind football and basketball.  But in March there is no contest. In March everybody’s favorite sport is basketball — NCAA tournament basketball. Ask anyone this time of year what’s his favorite sporting event to watch or bet on, and you will almost always get the same answers: the Final Four basketball tournament, March Madness. Professional football may be a fantasy favorite and have the Big Game “Superbowl Sunday”, but collegiate basketball has an entire month devoted to hoops hysteria.

Were you one of the more than 40 million Americans who filled out an estimated 70 million NCAA basketball brackets last month? How did you do? Did you win any money? Did you report those winnings as income? Probably not.

We’re told that more people fill out Final Four Tournament Brackets than cast a ballot for President Obama in the last election. (Does that mean Bracketology could claim to be the “National Pastime?” ) Obama fills out an NCAA bracket himself each season in the Oval Office, but he didn’t do too well this year. Kentucky let him down as it did many fans. But it doesn’t matter because he probably wouldn’t get to wager in a White House bracket pool anyway. As my readers know, sports betting is illegal almost everywhere. 

Nobody publicly offered a billion dollars for a perfect bracket this year as they did in the past, but there were many bracket contests you could enter - some for free. But, you know, it’s more fun to play if you have a chance to win a little money. That’s why office pools are so popular. Most of the wagering on the NCAA tournament didn’t happen in sports books in Nevada, where it’s legal to bet on sports. Most people who paid to play filled out their brackets with friends or coworkers, and pooled their entry fees for the chance to win the pot. Pretty much like players  and statistics lovers do for most fantasy sports  games everywhere. 

Gallup polls say 17% of Americans have wagered on sports in the past year. You may remember reading in my book, “Spin To Win,” and in an earlier entry in this blog that sports wagering is illegal in all states except Nevada, Delaware, Oregon, and Montana. That’s because only these four states allowed sports gambling in 1992 when the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) was passed. PASPA effectively prohibits sports gambling everywhere — except in these four states. So what did those 17% of Americans do? They just ignored the law. They made their picks and paid into their office pools — and didn’t once think they might be doing something illegal.

     The FBI estimates about $2.5 billion dollars was wagered on bracket contests last month. The American Gaming Association estimates a figure closer to $9 billion. Nobody knows for sure because nobody reports it - except for the large Vegas payouts and probably the bracket winners interviewed on TV.  Did you include any fantasy sports winnings on line 21 of your IRS form 1040? I didn’t think so. I guess we are all criminals at heart, guilty of violating the law by wagering where it isn’t legal to do so and failing to include our fantasy winnings in income.

Don’t worry. IRS and FBI agents will not bother to descend on your workplace to arrest everyone who entered your office pool. But maybe it’s time for further dialogue and a little common sense on the topic of sports betting. Most people don’t really think of fantasy football leagues or March Madness brackets as gambling, let alone as being illegal. And it would not occur to most people that they should pay tax on their winnings from these games if they had any. It’s entertainment. It’s your money. You should be able to do what you want with it. And it’s a lot more fun than buying a state sanctioned lottery ticket. 

Let’s use our common sense and modify our gaming laws so we don’t have to break the law next year when we fill out our brackets. Wishful thinking? Maybe. Or maybe it’s time to write our representatives a letter.

Olympic Sports Betting Update

  It’s unanimous! Amateur sports regulations no longer ban betting on Olympic events at your favorite Nevada sportsbook. You can bring home the green in Vegas while your favorite USA athletes bring home the gold in Rio in August 2016.

  On February 24, I reported HERE Olympics that a group led by the South Point Casino sportsbook was lobbying the Nevada Gaming Commission to rule that the ban on non-collegiate amateur sports should not apply to Olympic events because of the professional status of most participants. As hoped, the Commission totally agreed. Two days later, on February 26, In a move unopposed by anyone in the industry, gambling regulators in Nevada voted to allow betting in Las Vegas sportsbooks on the 2016 Olympic Games. 

  Bookmaker William Hill has already released a mobile app with future odds for many of the events. His line for the USA to win in men’s basketball opened at -320. Usain Bolt’s chances of a gold medal for the 100 meter dash are -200. You can see other futures listed in the March 12 Las Vegas Sun article by Case Keefer HERE.

  Changes may eventually extend beyond Olympic sports. The commission amended the language in the regulations to specify that bets can be accepted only on events not likely to be affected by wagering. Also, there will not be betting on children’s events such as the Little League Baseball World Series. Keep in mind too, what we discussed in earlier posts about restrictions on internet betting and sports betting in all but four states currently. Nevada is hoping the 2016 summer Olympics will prove to be as financially successful for the casinos as the World Cup games were last summer. Here’s hoping they’ll be financially successful for you and me too!

First Ever Borgata Basketball Tournament

    In an earlier entry, here, I talked about sports betting and how New Jersey lost out on their chance to be one of only five states where it is legal. New Jersey and the Borgata Casino in Atlantic City have made the news again.

    It’s not sports betting, but it does involve betting and it does involve sports - basketball to be exact. Executives at the Borgata Casino Resort and Spa have told the Associated Press that they have received permission from the New Jersey gaming regulators to hold a contest of skill in the casino this March 21 where players shoot free throws for cash. It is the first of many skill-based events planned to let gamblers take more control over the outcomes of their bets. The restrictions against sport betting in NJ do not apply because, similar to poker, bettors are gambling against each other, not the house as in blackjack or slots.

    For a $20 buy-in, contestants will compete in 90-second rounds for the right to play in the final round of sixteen in a bracket format. The top final four finishers will split $10,000 with half that going to the winner. Yes, you do need a player’s card to participate. This will be the first game of its kind offered by a licensed US casino according to New Jersey officials.

    Free throws will be shot from a 15-foot distance, at a 10-foot high basket, using a regulation size ball. Anyone 21 or older can play - even professional athletes. If someone from the NBA takes a chance to risk a $20, the term March Madness, so familiar to those of us who follow NCAA basketball every year, may take on a whole new meaning.

    If you think you’ve got what it takes, you can read the official rules here, or call 609-317-1000 to reserve your spot.

Sports Betting and the 2016 Olympics

    If you like to gamble at your favorite local casino on slots and table games (and who doesn’t) I bet you wish you could place a bet on the World Series or the Super Bowl there as well. I know I do.
    Unfortunately, that isn’t likely to happen any time soon. Under the 1992 Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), sometimes called the Bradly Act, Federal law made sports wagering illegal in all states except Nevada, Delaware, Oregon, and Montana. These four states were all grandfathered in because of wording in their state legislation allowing sports gambling at the time. New Jersey could have been added to that list. The state was given an eighteen month window to legalize sports betting and become the fifth state covered under the law, but it let its opportunity pass without acting. Regretting their missed opportunity, NJ repeatedly filed suit over the years since attempting to be added to the favored four to no avail. Recently the Supreme Court, by refusing to hear the New Jersey case, effectively ruled that any changes must now be legislative not judicial. So, Atlantic City won’t be accepting bets on sports teams anytime soon.

    It’s not just team sports like football and hockey, baseball and basketball that we Californians are unable to wager on at sport books. We can’t even play the ponies here in the Golden State except at the tracks.
    California has tried several times to make sports betting legal. In the most recent attempt, Senator Roderick Wright introduced California Senate Bill 190 seeking to allow sports betting at the California venues that allow legal gambling: tribal casinos, card rooms, and horse racing tracks.  The bill did not pass, dying in committee June 8, 2013. Even if it had passed, however, because of PASPA, action would have been required in Washington DC before it could be implemented.
    Most of the Californians I know visit Las Vegas when they want to bet on athletic events. The Vegas sports books can legally accept wagers on professional sporting events and college competitions, but not on non-collegiate amateur sports. This restriction is based on Nevada gaming regulation 22.120-1(a). The prohibition stems primarily from a compromise worked out with Senator John McCain to restrict betting on amateur sports to collegiate ones.

    Recently the Las Vegas sports books have questioned just what constitutes amateur sports. They question if the Olympics should even be considered amateur sports when teams are made up of professional athletes like LeBron James. Why should it be legal to bet on professional basketball and hockey players when playing for their home teams, but not be legal to bet on these same individuals when competing in the Olympics for their country? Are the Olympic athletes even amateurs when they are paid such large sums of money for product endorsement? Or when they earn comfortable livings playing these same games? Tough questions to answer.
    Starting in the 1970’s, requirements that players be amateurs have gradually been phased out of the Olympic Charter. After the 1988 games, the IOC decided to make all professional athletes eligible to compete. As of 2012, the only sports in which no professionals compete are boxing and wrestling, and some of those fighters receive cash prizes from their national committees.
    Vegas sport books have teamed up to lobby the Nevada Gaming Commission to allow betting on Olympic events in that state, hopefully in time for next year’s Summer Games in Rio. If the Commission gives its approval later this month, news sources report the IOC will monitor the change closely to safeguard the integrity of the competition. Proponents point out that Olympic betting is already common throughout the rest of the world, and that there have been no problems resulting from wagering on these sports.
     We’ll keep you posted when we learn more.

UPDATED 3-13-2015

   It’s unanimous! As of February 26th, Amateur sports regulations no longer ban betting on Olympic events at your favorite Nevada sportsbook. For more information and current betting odds, check out my updated blog entry HERE.